The youth vote better stick around for the general election or I'll be campaigning to raise the voting age to 30. If they flake on Obama like they did on Kerry, I will never trust anyone UNDER 30 again.
Obama supporters, I advise you, please stop dismissing the candidate that, in a winner-take all primary system (you know, the same system as the general election), Hillary would have trumped your guy flat.
First let me make one thing clear, Obama won the Democratic primary, I'm not disputing that. However, that is no indication he will win in the general election. Because:
Obama won the nomination largely in part because of his attention to small, red-state caucus states. Caucus voters are not indicative of general election voters. In caucus states, the people who come out for caucuses are die-hards. It's a time and emotion committment. More people come out to vote in primary states. And more people vote in the general election than in primaries. So a red-state caucus is the worst indicator of how a state will go in the general. Obama may have beat Hillary in those states, but that's--as my dad put it--20% of 80% vs. 55% of 100%. Obama ain't likely to win those states in the general.
Obama did not win in states that are crucial to a Dem victory, primarily Ohio, Florida, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Those went pretty solidly Hillary, even if you discount Florida. So it would be wise to for Obama supporters to not piss off Hillary supporters in those states as they can very easily swing Republican. They are battleground states for a reason.
Here's a couple of things to think about going into the general election:
Obama needs Hillary's non-registered Dem supporters, and that's not a sure thing (and even her moderate to centrist Dem supporters are not sure things for him). If you support Obama, please understand why those people voted for Hillary and not Barak and figure out a way to relate to them.
Obama needs to get a lot more specific and pragmatic about his foreign policies. No matter how badly Bush has failed, there is still a very real and very dangerous Middle East and terrorist problem. There are a lot of people who might be against the Iraq war, but are still afraid of terrorists. Obama's "let's sit down and chat" doesn't assuage those fears. He needs a Plan B and he needs to outline what that Plan B will be.
I will never vote for McCain. But I'm not the person Obama needs to be worried about. He needs to worry about my friend in south Florida. The talk radio host who might have voted for Hillary but won't for Obama until he gets more realistic about the foreign policy crisis in the Middle East. She'll endure a lot domestically because she believes to her core that the Middle East issues are the greater threat. And her listeners will lean whichever way she leans. I don't agree with her, but without more details from Obama what will happen once his "talks" with Iran and Syria fail (which they will), I don't have anything to argue with her about. He's got to give me something to convince her on that front.
Because let's face it folks. Americans are sheeple. And Republicans are good at herding sheep.
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